Q2 2019 – Annandale Capital Quarterly Commentary

Step back in time one year when markets were at all-time highs and interest rates were marching upward. Would you have foreseen 10-year Treasury yields falling back to 2.0%? Would you have imagined the Federal Reserve contemplating a rate cut? How about markets implying the probability of that cut is 100%? We assume the answer to each of these questions is a resounding no. Now approach this thought exercise from a different angle. Imagine you knew select pieces of information in advance, that by Q2 2019 10-year Treasury yields would be almost a percent lower and that the Federal Reserve will be actively contemplating rate cuts. With the benefit of this information, would you envision an environment where US stocks are hitting all-time highs? Would you have foreseen global equities returning 16.1% year-to-date? Or, in line with historical norms, would you have guessed stocks were in the midst of a bear market? Download Q2 2019 commentary.